The virtual seminar will be held from 12:30 to 2:00 p.m. (E.T.)
Evidence suggests that China is moving to develop and deploy strategic early-warning systems that include satellites and ground-based radars intended to detect an incoming missile attack and allow leadership the option to initiate retaliatory nuclear attacks before the incoming warheads detonate. Adoption of potential capabilities for prompt launch would represent a major departure from China's decades-long policy of storing its nuclear warheads separately from missile systems, in effect delaying nuclear retaliation after an attack for hours, or possibly days. It also could heighten the risk of a U.S.-China nuclear conflict by compressing decision time and increasing the possibility and consequences of technological or operational errors in nuclear weapons systems. This presentation asks how launch-under-attack might affect China's nuclear weapons planning and decision-making, particularly given implementation challenges related to geography, emerging technologies, and possible responses from adversaries, and more broadly what would this policy shift mean for China's political and military relationships with its potential adversaries on issues of the threat and use of nuclear weapons. It draws in part on the 2025 article Is China Changing Its Nuclear Launch Strategy?
About the speaker: Tong Zhao is a visiting researcher with the Program on Science and Global Security and Senior Fellow at the Nuclear Policy Program and the China Center of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Washington, DC. He was a Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government. He holds a PhD in science, technology, and international affairs from Georgia Institute of Technology, as well as an MA in international relations and a BS in physics from Tsinghua University, Beijing. His research is on nuclear deterrence, nonproliferation, arms control, emerging military technologies, China's security policy, and regional security in the Asia-Pacific.